29 Dec The Tracking Problem
The Tracking Problem
Dec. 29, 2021
I get a lot of messages via email and YouTube asking me a very simple question:
Hey, how are your strategies doing?
It’s a simple question loaded with all sorts of problems.
First, which strategy? I’ve looked at 38 different strategies since March 2021 in the Newsletter. I look at many more that are older. And I look at different versions of those strategies. And different timeframes.
Asking my how my strategy is doing could have fifty different answers. While asking me specifically about a strategy’s performance would help me answer, not everyone thinks of doing that or has just one strategy in mind.
I could answer by looking at the ones I trade but I have 6-8 live accounts going at a given time and I am trading my personal money in some and experimenting in the live market in others. Plus, they all have different amounts of money in them and different risk parameters. So, again, it’s not an easy question.
Second, how do I report on a strategy’s performance? Ideally, I would have live updates that anyone could check on publicly. Unfortunately, I haven’t found a single good option.
I’ve tried myfxbook and my experience has been awful. For some reason, setting it up by downloading their software and inputting account numbers rarely works. It won’t load historical data and sometimes won’t load anything at all from Oanda. And the customer service is horrendous. It takes days for them to answer and they mostly don’t answer the questions I ask. One question can take a week or longer to solve and it usually doesn’t get solved. Even more, the few accounts I have been able to successfully load have all been rendered obsolete by “updates” on their end. They update their software and my charts stop tracking live data–with no help from them to get it back running. So, this hasn’t worked out.
I then tried FxBlue this year and that was easy to set up. The problem is that it only shows data for the past three months. Um, what? A tracking service that only tracks for three months? That’s not acceptable for what I want to do. Emails to their customer service have not been helpful either.
So I’m stymied.
My solution could be to use live trades from my accounts but I like to watch several things trade live and experiment with different portfolios (or downsize into trading just one chart). Any report not an exact report because the portfolio is not the same the entire time.
The best solution I can think of is to use my testing results. Now, people freak out because there are so many liars out there and they don’t want false, curve-fit reports. I get it.
But showing testing results is the absolute closest thing I can get to consistent live performance. Testing is what I use to decide if I’m putting my own real money on the line, so I feel okay about giving my testing to a curious trader. My testing isn’t gimmicked, so it’s a good measuring stick. Furthermore, many live results online are tested data that’s trustworthy, not data from actual trades. Take David Alan Carter for example.
In summary, I’d love your help. If you have a reliable forex reporting site that can easily be set up, I’ll try it out.
Otherwise, as we move into the new year, I’m going to use my own testing results as well as reports from live accounts that haven’t had any trade size or portfolio changes.
I think that will be an easy way for someone to get an answer to “how the strategies are doing”. And it will be realistic, too, even if it’s not derived live trades.
In our next Newsletter, we’ll talk about what strategies I’m interesting in tracking in 2022.
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HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.