23 Feb The Performance Page
The Performance Page
Feb. 23, 2022
Everyone likes to talk about the reasons traders fail.
It mostly comes down to one simple thing: trust.
Trust is everything.
Remember the study that tried to identify a major broker’s most successful clients? It turned out the broker’s most profitable traders were dead. They’d passed away while in open trades and just let it run. Of course, this is 99% luck but the lesson is clear.
Dead people trust their systems.
And even doing something so silly as buying-and-holding can work out if you have a high level of trust.
The reason traders fail is that they think the current losing streak is doomsday. They think their system is flawed and will never come back.
Of course, traders have good reasons not to trust.
High-pressure hustling and fraudulent backtests make it very hard to believe in anything. To combat that–to “quit before they’re fired”–traders don’t commit; they sample a little bit of this and a little bit of that.
If I don’t commit to an online hustler, I can’t get burned.
Of course, this behavior leads to big losses as losing streaks from untrusted systems start to pile up. If traders had chosen well and simply stuck to a system, they’d reap the benefits of the bounce-back.
But what if there is no bounce back? What if it’s the end because the system is garbage to begin with? I better try something else…
And around and around we go.
No trust, no results.
So, how can we fix that?
Unfortunately, it’s a big uphill climb. Nobody really trusts anyone in the trading world. But we can try.
And that’s what The Performance Page is.
On this page, I’ll be tracking several systems on a monthly basis. We’ll be able to see how well some systems are doing or how some are not working out. Then we’ll be able to analyze what the problems are as we encounter them. It’s a way to show up every month and see what’s working.
Of course, even this may not be enough. People are damaged. And they’ll say that testing results aren’t good enough. They’ll say that I need to open 20 different myfxbook accounts and post the results there.
I get it. I see why they’d like that. But doing it this way is completely reliable (once we learn to trust each other) and allows me to track WAY more systems, thereby giving us much more information.
We’ll learn if old systems are, in fact, robust. We’ll learn how well systems do during crashes (and boom times). We’ll learn if long-term systems are better to trade or if it matters.
Hopefully we’ll learn a lot of things.
Right now, I’m tracking several systems and it takes time to keep it up to date. But I’d be completely open to requests on a new system to track. Maybe something in the Newsletter catches your eye and you think we should add it to the list. Feel free to let me know.
But I’m really excited about having this page. It’s taken me a while to find something I think is truly helpful. I think it can help build some trust.
In our next Newsletter, we’ll look at a system we first talked about in 2018. We’ll see how it’s done since then (and if it’s a candidate to be tracked).
Talk to you soon.
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It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Examples presented on these sites are for educational purposes only. These set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. The authors, the publisher, and all affiliates assume no responsibility for your trading results. There is a high degree of risk in trading.
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.