05 Apr The Most Ridiculous System I’ve Ever Seen

Posted at 23:00h in Trading Blog by

The Most Ridiculous System I’ve Ever Seen

Apr. 5, 2024

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I’m not much for hocus pocus or horoscopes.

I’m not superstitious.

But apparently there’s a thing call “moon phase trading”.

Wait, what?

Yes, it’s when you trade the S&P 500 index based on moon phase cycles.

Yikes.

Before you laugh, let’s look at the system rules.

Then we can laugh.

Moon Phase Michael Scott System (Daily)

  • Instrument: ES (E-mini S&P Futures Contract)
  • Long Only: When it’s a full moon, buy at market the next day.
  • Time Exit: Exit after 31 days if you haven’t already exited.
  • Profit: $9000 per contract
  • Stop: $1000 per contract

Absolutely ridiculous, right?

So I looked up every full moon date since 2019 and put it into EasyLanguage. That looks like this:

//2023
if date crosses over calcdate(1230106,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1230205,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1230307,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1230406,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1230505,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1230603,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1230703,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1230801,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1230830,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1230929,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1231028,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1231127,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1231226,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1240125,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1240224,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1240325,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1240424,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1240523,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1240622,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1240721,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1240819,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1240918,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1241017,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1241115,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;
if date crosses over calcdate(1241215,dayshift) then buy next bar at market;

Then I used simple code. That looks like this:

Inputs: dayshift(0), barsx(31), prft(9000), sl(1000);

if Barssinceentry >= barsx then sell next bar at market;
if Maxpositionprofit >= prft then sell next bar at market;
setstoploss(sl);

[To get this in Tradestation, the Inputs go on top, the dates go in the middle, and the “if” statements go at the end.]

So, right now, gun to your head, what do you think has happened since 2018?

(waiting…)

Well, here you go (via Portfolio Architect):

Here it is in Tradestation:

No freaking way.

So I found the dates for 2009 and 2010. That looked like this:

Notice there aren’t any results from 2010-2018. That’s because manually looking up all the full moons takes a while.

What’s the problem?

One problem for me is that moon phases isn’t a real reason.

(Or is it?)

But the real problem is: What happens during Bear Markets?

Yes, it thrived during the 2o22 Bear Market. But what about the Dot-Com Crash and the Great Recession:

It lost a lot during 2008 and also lost in 2002.

But.

It was more profitable in the Bear Market of 2001 and did nicely, as mentioned, in 2022.

This is an absolutely nonsensical, unbelievable trading system.

But it makes money in many years…

And now you have the code.

Talk to you soon.

p.s. Dave over at Peak Trading does a detailed video on this same system with slightly different code and inputs. It’s interesting!

 

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Disclaimer:
It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Examples presented on these sites are for educational purposes only. These set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. The authors, the publisher, and all affiliates assume no responsibility for your trading results. There is a high degree of risk in trading.

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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