25 Mar The Coffee Can System (On Steroids)
The Coffee Can System (On Steroids)
Mar. 25, 2024
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We’ve discussed this before, but it bears repeating.
A huge broker once did an audit on its most successful clients.
Know what it found?
The best traders had one thing in common.
They all stayed in their trades.
Most losing traders at most brokers flow in and out of stocks for no good reason. By getting in and getting out on whims, most traders miss every move to the upside and exaggerate losses on the downside.
The broker’s biggest winners, though, stayed in through it all.
Because they were dead.
Morbid, but allegedly true.
That’s where the Coffee Can System comes in. I didn’t make it up but I’m learning to love the concept more and more.
The idea is that we take our system, or portfolio, and put it away in a metaphorical coffee can for ten years.
On purpose.
We take some time, think really hard, pick some things we think will increase in value, and then set our alarm to check back a decade later.
And hopefully stay alive.
For systems, that means setting up an automated strategy/portfolio and letting it run for ten years.
For stocks, it means picking things that will be around and thriving a long time from now.
That means maybe an index fund for some, or possibly things like Johnson & Johnson, Chipotle, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, etc.
But what it we went a ridiculous step further?
What if we put some outrageous highly-leveraged ETFs in our coffee can? What might that look like?
Here’s a sample portfolio that I’ve started tracking in real-time:
I’ve only been tracking it a short while, but it’s beating the market as of this writing.
And if we go back to September 2023 (when all of these were actually tradeable), it beats the market by a country mile:
That’s 65% for the crazy ETFs and 13% for the market.
I know. Leveraged ETFs are moronic and dangerous and stupid and ignorant.
With drawdowns through the roof.
But what would happen if we left a basket like this in a coffee can?
Would it go to zero?
Or would it beat the market by eye-popping amounts?
I’ll be tracking it going forward, and possibly trading it.
To be continued…
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Disclaimer:
It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Examples presented on these sites are for educational purposes only. These set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. The authors, the publisher, and all affiliates assume no responsibility for your trading results. There is a high degree of risk in trading.
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.