Performance Page Portfolio: The Bollinger Band™ 120-Minute System

Sept. 4, 2024

In past three Newsletters, we’ve looked deeply into the Performance Page Portfolio (PPP).

This is a Futures-Only portfolio that uses three index strategies and one Gold.

We’ve seen all the index methodologies. Just one more to go.

Here again is our updated benchmark for SPY in 2024 (as of this writing):

SPY is up around 20% for the year. If we can’t beat that, why bother?

The fourth strategy we’re using is the Bollinger Band™ GC 120-Minute system (on the GC chart). The details for this system and the other ES strategies can be seen here.

Why do we want this?

Everyone wants us to own Gold. It’s a supposed safe haven during crashes. Plus, it’s a hard asset, which means we’ll have something to trade when the people with pitchforks come to burn down our houses.

Additionally, we’d like something that trades very differently than a stock index. This hopefully will give us diversification and a smooth Equity Curve.

What’s great about this system?

It trades breakouts, and we know that breakouts are the most reliable trading method in history. Everything breaks out at some point. If we trade instruments that break out hard, like Gold, we can possibly do very well. And Bands are possibly the best way to trade breakouts.

It also has a positive reward-to-risk ratio which is the only way to trade, according to the experts.

What’s bad about this system?

It has a positive reward-to-risk.

As we know, “good” reward-to-risk means we will have a low win percentage and lots of failed breakouts. Some traders can’t take losing with regularity.

Here’s an example.

This system is up nicely for the year.

It’s hypothetically done really well the past 12 months and it’s up over $3,400 in 2024.

Great, right?

Here are some recent trades:

Whoa, that’s a lot of losers. It’s up for the year and over the long haul, but to get there we’d have to suffer a lot of bad trades.

That’s the pain of trend following.

And, as we can see, this system won’t do well in whipsawing markets.

How has this system done since 2016 trading 1 contract each time (via Portfolio Architect)?

Here’s the Curve on a hypothetically aggressive $20k account:

Has it beaten the market on its own since 2016?

Yes, by a wide margin. Even though it has a low win rate.

If you’d like the Tradestation code for all 4 strategies, I’m temporarily offering a special price of $199. Just send $199 to me via PayPal at scotwelsh@gmail.com before September 3rd and I’ll email you the ELD. The price will be over $500 after this week.

Of course, I give away the details to the strategies for free in the YouTube videos if you want to build them yourself.

We’ll go over the whole portfolio in the next Newsletter.

Join the free Newsletter list here .

Get Robot information HERE.
Visit my Performance Page HERE.
Buy my new book HERE.
The Inevitability of Becoming Rich is HERE.
My latest YouTube video is HERE.

Disclaimer:
It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Examples presented on these sites are for educational purposes only. These set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. The authors, the publisher, and all affiliates assume no responsibility for your trading results. There is a high degree of risk in trading.

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.