Performance Page Portfolio: Overall Analysis

Sept. 6, 2024

In past four Newsletters, we’ve looked at the individual components of the Performance Page Portfolio (PPP).

(This is a Futures-Only portfolio that uses three index strategies and one Gold.)

Now we need to see if it’s worth our time and what the plusses and minuses are.

Here again is our updated benchmark for SPY in 2024 (as of this writing):

How has the PPP done in 2024?

It’s hypothetically produced $26,122.

Is that good?

To answer, we have to talk about a big minus.

And that is Futures trading itself.

Unfortunately, it’s not like stocks or Fx. We can’t just open an account and throw a bunch of instruments into it.

With Futures, there are margin requirements. Meaning: we can’t have a $5,000 account and trade 1 contract on an E-Mini S&P 500 (ES) strategy.

Why?

Because trading just one contract (and holding it overnight or longer) requires us having over $15,000:

Well, that stinks.

It gets worse.

If we want to trade 3 ES strategies, like the ones we’ve talked about, then we’d have to multiply by three. That means we need at least $45k in our account.

Now, we don’t really have to have that amount. What are the chances all 3 strategies will be in a trade at the same time? Decent, but not for sure. If only two strategies are in a trade, then our account would only have to have $30k in it.

And you can see where this is going.

Remember, our portfolio has made about $26k in 2024. On a $30k account, that’s an 86% return through August.

Pretty impressive.

But if we only have $30k and all 3 do fire off, then we wouldn’t get our third trade or we’d have to add more money. So, to be safe, we’ll say we have $45k.

In that case, our 2024 return is hypothetically only 57%.

Which, obviously, is still way better than the market’s returns.

We’re not done, though. We still have Gold to consider.

How much does GC require? $11k.

So, to trade all of our strategies, we’d need about $57,000 in our trading account.

And, if we did, our 2024 return drops to only 45%.

Which still more than doubles the silly old SPY.

That’s fine for 2024.

How has our PPP done since 2016 trading 1 contract each time (via Portfolio Architect)?

Here’s the Curve on a hypothetical $57k account:

Here are the Annual Returns:

Did it beat the market?

Yes, by a wide margin. Since 2016, the PPP has more than doubled the market’s returns.

With no compounding.

And it’s only had a max drawdown of 13%.

That said, if you’d like the Tradestation code for all 4 strategies, I’m temporarily offering a special price of $199. Just send $199 to me via PayPal at scotwelsh@gmail.com before September 7th and I’ll email you the ELD. The price will be over $500 after this week.

As you know, anyone can also find all the details to the strategies for free in the YouTube videos if you want to build them yourself.

So what’s the biggest downside?

The cost. The barrier to entry.

I’m sure there aren’t a ton of people out there with $57k lying around in a trading account.

What’s the solution?

One, just wait. Earn and save and when we have enough money, get started.

Or we could trade a portfolio that requires a mere fraction of that size using Futures’ (relatively) new invention, the micros.

And we’ll start discussing doing that in the upcoming Newsletters.

Talk to you soon.

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My latest YouTube video is HERE.

Disclaimer:
It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Examples presented on these sites are for educational purposes only. These set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. The authors, the publisher, and all affiliates assume no responsibility for your trading results. There is a high degree of risk in trading.

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.