11 Oct New Master Trend No B/E Strategy
New Master Trend No B/E Strategy
Oct. 11, 2023
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This week we’re examining the topic: Is Trend Following Dead?
Because trend following has struggled mightily this year.
Except for strategies with no moves to break-even.
I like the mental crutch of getting to break-even as much as anyone, but this market has punched that peace-of-mind- move right in the face in 2023.
However, if we can stomach it, not moving to break-even has actually performed nicely.
Hypothetically, it’s been profitable to use trend following strategies with no break-evens.
In our last Newsletter, we mentioned a Master Trend strategy that tested profitably this year. Here was that Report again:
Woohoo. But what has it done over the past five years?
Quite well, actually. Here’s the Curve for the GJPY via Portfolio Architect:
On a hypothetical $15k account (trading 1 lot each time), it’s up over 250%.
Here are the simple details on the GJPY on the 1H chart:
Long Entry: A close above the Upper Band (100 Length, 3 st dev). Opposite for Shorts.
Target: 450 pips
Stop: 190 pips
Move to Break-Even: NO!!!!
Now let’s do something crazy. Let’s take these same settings and put it on the EURUSD. The U.S. has been a mess for a couple of years, so it seems like the EURUSD would have had some big trends.
Here’s the Report for the 1H EURUSD with the same settings in 2023:
It’s hypothetically done quite well.
Not having a break-even has worked again.
But this, of course, is the danger of curve-fitting. Sure, we found a strategy that worked on a tough year like 2023. What about the other recent years?
It turns out the EURUSD version of this strategy has hypothetically done nicely over the past 5 years. Here’s the Portfolio Architect Curve:
Not having a break-even works in completely different market environments.
While relying on break-even doesn’t work well at all in certain conditions.
In our next Newsletter, we’ll look at another example and put together a Master Trend small portfolio.
It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Examples presented on these sites are for educational purposes only. These set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. The authors, the publisher, and all affiliates assume no responsibility for your trading results. There is a high degree of risk in trading.
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.