SCOTT WELSH TRADING BLOG

Is It Real Or Is It Marketing?

Is It Real Or Is It Marketing?

August 28, 2019

To believe or not to believe.

That is the question.

We’ve all seen ads online promising amazing things. And we know that they seem too good to be true.

But I’m still intrigued by them.

Because: what if it’s true?

Surely, somebody out there is actually making these big gains. They can’t all be lying.

Right?

Case in point. Here’s a myfxbook account of a system I read about recently. (I heard about this via a tip from a Newsletter reader.)

This system supposedly started in 2016 and has returned over 1,000% since then:

In three years, that’s a very nice return.

Of course, the drawdown is pretty high because this system uses money management that increases the trade size as it wins. It’s like Martingale in reverse.

In addition, the myfxbook is verified and it’s categorized as “Real” (as opposed to Demo). Can myfxbook be faked? Most assuredly it can be faked, but how likely is that?

So here we are. We’d all like to make 1,000% on our money in three years. But is it real?

To get to the bottom of it, we would need to answer two basic questions:

  1. If it’s so good, how come the person is selling it?
  2. Can it be replicated?

The first one is a question that always comes up. If there’s a system out there that makes 1,000%, why wouldn’t the creator just keep it secret and make millions? Why would he share?

At first, that question appears to lead to a “gotcha” moment. Selling something that good means that it’s not really that good. If it was, they wouldn’t sell!

But that’s not as good an argument as we think. For example, why does Buffett give away hundreds of millions of dollars? Why not keep it for himself?

The reason? Buffett does this because it’s more fun to share something than it is to hoard something. Life is better when shared. Selfish doesn’t work in the long run. Selfish can get toxic. And maybe this system creator knows that.

Or maybe the creator is already rich. Maybe he doesn’t need any more money and just wants to spread the wealth.

In my life, I trained kids who earned full scholarships to major universities. One student, for example, earned a full ride to Northwestern. Do you know how much that scholarship is worth?

$203,420.

Why would I give away my knowledge for $80 bucks an hour when it’s worth over $200k? Because it’s better to share, that’s why. And, of course, I was too old to get a scholarship for myself. But hopefully you see my point.

Other people’s success can be very rewarding.

The second question is the one we’ll look at this week.

If a system makes outrageous claims that can’t possibly be repeated, we probably know it’s fake.

So is there a system we currently have that could even come close to those myfxbook claims?

If so, there may something to it.

In our next emails, we’ll ramp up the money management on an old system and how far we can get.

That should help us decide whether it’s real or fake.

Talk to you soon.

 

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Disclaimer:
It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Examples presented on these sites are for educational purposes only. These set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. The authors, the publisher, and all affiliates assume no responsibility for your trading results. There is a high degree of risk in trading.

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.