03 Apr Is “Good Enough” Good Enough?
Is “Good Enough” Good Enough?
Apr. 3, 2023
Why don’t people achieve their goals?
Mostly it’s because of one bad day.
If they say they’re going to work out and, on the fourth day, they don’t make it to the gym…it’s over.
It doesn’t matter that they can just go tomorrow. It doesn’t matter that 49 successful days out of 50 is remarkable.
If they miss one day, if everything isn’t perfect, it’s a failure forever.
Many years ago, when I decided that my Hornet robot was good enough to offer to other people, I had a woman buy it.
I could tell she was nervous and was showing signs of being high-maintenance/high-strung.
But she bought anyway, eventually. After I’d shared all my Tradestation testing and she’d confirmed it to the penny on her Tradestation platform, she was finally ready to start trading live.
And then everything got ruined. Tradestation stopped offering Forex.
This was shocking and worrying for me (I’d just recently made 100% in a year with the Hornet on Tradestation), but I learned about Oanda and MT4 and moved everything over.
My nervous client moved over also, but she was freaked out.
What freaked her out?
The testing no longer was the same. Not only was MT4 testing different from Tradestation testing, my MT4 testing was different from her MT4 testing.
Even though my MT4 backtest would show a profit of, say, $38,107, hers would show $37,643.
It wasn’t the exact same.
And no matter how many screenshots we shared, we couldn’t make it match up.
Yes, it was almost identical, but it wasn’t the same.
So she bagged it. She wouldn’t accept anything less than perfect.
And she stopped trading the Hornet forever.
Here’s the thing.
What if the testing never matched up? What if the next year I made $2,234 and she made $2,198? Is that a failure?
Is that unacceptable?
Or is giving up due to very minor discrepancies a close-minded tragedy?
(Kind of like giving up peak fitness because of one missed day?)
A few years ago, I also gave up trading the Hornet. And the Heron, too. (Those two are similar in every way except the indicator they use.)
Why did I give up?
Because the testing wasn’t matching the real-life trades.
But lately I’ve been wondering: Does that really matter?
Yes, I may make a little less in real-life, but am I giving up profit–and a very high win percentage system that works when the Dragonfly and Master Trend don’t–because I’m a closed-minded tragedy?
I’ve been wondering this a lot.
In the next two Newsletters, I’ll go over the data.
And you can help me decide if I should be trading the Heron.
I may have given up way too soon. Because the testing is really good.
It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Examples presented on these sites are for educational purposes only. These set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. The authors, the publisher, and all affiliates assume no responsibility for your trading results. There is a high degree of risk in trading.
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.