SCOTT WELSH TRADING BLOG

Free System for 2022: Old School

Free System for 2022: Old School

Jan. 7, 2022

This week we’re looking at strategies we’re going to track in 2022.

Today we’ll talk about a free system.

First, how did I choose? As mentioned in the last Newsletter, there were over 30 different strategies to choose from. Almost all show hypothetical profit from 2021 and all showed hypothetical profit from 2003-2021. So, what to pick?

I have a strong bias toward timeless principles. I like strategies that have existed for many decades. The Dragonfly and Master Trend, while utilizing universal principles, are my own creations. No one was trading the Master Trend in the 1980s.

That means I want a “Turtle” strategy (one that trades straight breakouts) and I want a moving average cross strategy. Of course, I did optimize a little bit. Did my version of old school strategies test out?

Yes. And here are the ones I’ll be tracking.

The 60M “Turtle” Breakout (GBPJPY Only)
Entry: Above or below the high or low of the past 70 bars
Target: 450 pips
Stop: 75 pips
Timed Exit: 210 bars

2021 Hypothetical Returns (using 1 lot): $12,597
2003-2021 Hypothetical Returns (using 1 lot): $197,730

The 240M “Turtle” Breakout (GBPJPY Only)
Entry: Above or below the high or low of the past 145 bars
Target: 253 pips
Stop: ATR with 4 Length and ATR Multiplier of 0.65
Trailing Stop: the high or low of the past 6 bars
Timed Exit: 22 bars

2021 Hypothetical Returns (using 1 lot): $4,841
2003-2021 Hypothetical Returns (using 1 lot): $90,198

The 30M Moving Average Crosses v2.6 (GBPJPY Only)
Filter: Price must be above the 200 SMA for Longs and below 200 SMA for Shorts
Entry: 40 SMA crosses above 50 SMA for Long trades (40 below the 50 for Short trades)
Long Target: 150 pips
Long Stop: 150 pips
Long Break-Even: None
Short Target: 1,000 pips
Short Stop: 350 pips
Short Break-Even: 100 pips
Long Timed Exit: 980 bars
Short Timed Exit: 60 bars

2021 Hypothetical Returns (using 1 lot): $4,291
2003-2021 Hypothetical Returns (using 1 lot): $174.140

And if we trade all of those together, what do we get?

Not bad. $548k of hypothetical profit with only $42k of drawdown (using 1 lot each time). Here are the Annual Returns:

Since ’03 was only a partial year, we could say there were really no losing years. That’s pretty good. I think it’s worth our time to track this portfolio.

(I’ll be doing a YouTube video on these systems if you want more details).

So, that’s our free system for this year. In our next Newsletter, we’ll talk about a Master Trend system.

Talk to you soon.

Join the free Newsletter list here .

 

Get The Legend of Purple Valley: An Incredible Trading Journey here.

Get The Inevitability of Becoming Rich here.

 

 

To become an Elite Member go here.

 

Disclaimer:
It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Examples presented on these sites are for educational purposes only. These set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. The authors, the publisher, and all affiliates assume no responsibility for your trading results. There is a high degree of risk in trading.

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.