Dark Thoughts About Trading For A Living

Feb. 24, 2025

For several years, a terrible thought has been echoing in my head.

Is trading for a living a scam?

My first answer has always been an emphatic, “No!”

My second answer has been, “Shut your mouth!

It’s definitely possible to trade for a living.

Just like making a profit playing Blackjack in Vegas is possible. 

The feeling just won’t go away.

Here’s the problem I can’t deny.

Trading always loses.

There’s no getting around it. Trend following, for example, is the best methodology ever created, and it’s based on mostly losing. For trend following to work, it has to lose. Otherwise, we can’t keep our losses small and our profits big.

But the goal is to trade for a living. Meaning: trading must pay the bills.

How can a system that is guaranteed to lose for a week, month, year, or multiple years pay my bills?

How do I pay my mortgage during 5 consecutive losing years?

My argument is that I’d be profitable overall. And the total amount of money would get larger over time.

But you can’t live like that.

I, uh…

Could I quit my job and turn over all bills to my trading account and then not make money for half a decade?

Well, that’s just an extreme example!

But there are other easy examples. Ever seen a trading system lose money for several months in a row?

Yes, every system I’ve ever seen in the past 15 years has had multiple month drawdowns. If it didn’t, then it was a 99% system that lost all its money in one bad trade.

So how do you trade for a living if you don’t have money for months at a time?

You’re so annoying.

But here’s the part I really struggle with.

Even when trading is right, it’s not right.

For example, I once made 100% in a year trading my Fx Hornet robot on Tradestation. Tradestation had good fills and reliable data, and everything went great for a year.

But what then?

I hypothetically could have paid bills that year. I made a great return.

But what about the next year?

I’m going to punch you in the face.

The Hornet, of course, reverted to the mean like everything in the universe always does. And then Tradestation Forex went away and I went down a whole new road (that went okay until very recently).

But even during the great or okay times, there’s no escape from the losing, as much as I want one. No escape from multiple losing months.

As you know, I’ve been tracking the Performance Page Portfolio for a while now, and it’s been doing great.

But here’s a stretch from 2023–which was a profitable year.

How do I pay my bills for those four months?

What if I’d quit my job and started trading this successful portfolio for a living in August 2023?

You’d be in huge trouble. 

Okay, I get it!

Are you seeing why that dark voice has been such a problem?

Now, let’s compare trading for a living with receiving income for a living.

Many months ago, I started very small. Almost all of my money was still in trading.

But the voice was killing me, so I started with the only thing that was allowed: basic dividend investing. I wanted money coming in.

As my research progressed, though, I started adding more and more high-yield ETFs. So, in the following charts, keep in mind that I started with things like SBUX and PFE and then made a big switch.

That said, here is my monthly income since 2024 (via Schwab):

Hmm. The monthly income keeps getting larger and larger.

Where are the drawdowns?

You know there aren’t any.

And here is 2025 so far:

Monthly income has surpassed $2,000 and is continuing to grow. The projection is now looking at over $20k per year in payments.

And even though it’s not as accurate as Schwab, here’s the last year all on one chart (via Canadian company Passiv):

Again, there aren’t any drawdowns. And the amount keeps rising.

Seems like you could pay your bills with rising income constantly coming in.

Obviously. Jerk.

All of this doesn’t mean trading doesn’t work.

Or isn’t possible.

Of course it’s possible to supplement net worth with trading.

But can trading really allow me to trade for a living?

I think you know. 

Talk to you soon.

 

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Disclaimer:
It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Examples presented on these sites are for educational purposes only. These set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. The authors, the publisher, and all affiliates assume no responsibility for your trading results. There is a high degree of risk in trading.

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.