13 Oct A New Master Trend No B/E Portfolio
A New Master Trend No B/E Portfolio
Oct. 13, 2023
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This week we’ve been wondering if trend following was dead.
As it turns out, if we don’t use a move to break-even, it’s not dead at all.
In fact, it’s hypothetically doing great.
In our previous two Newsletters, we looked at a Master Trend trend following simple strategy on the GBPJPY and EURUSD 1-hour charts.
Both tested out nicely over the past five years using the same exact settings.
But, of course, the same settings won’t work on everything, especially for trend following methods.
Some Fx pairs trend like crazy. Some don’t trend at all.
If we have a small target (like the Hornet or Heron), we have a lot of possible options because the target doesn’t take much work to reach.
But massive trend following profit targets won’t get hit by lackluster pairs. And they won’t get hit in years like 2023.
So, what can we do?
You guessed it. Just lower the profit target.
Let’s do that on the GBPUSD 1-hour chart. We’ll keep the stop about the same but we’ll cut the profit target in half.
Still no break-even.
How has this Master Trend trend following strategy done in 2023?
It’s hypothetically made over $7k this year trading 1 lot each time. How about over the past 5 years?
Here’s the Portfolio Architect Curve:
It’s hypothetically done better than the other two.
And what if we combined all three of these no break-even trend following strategies we’ve discussed this week?
Here’s the Portfolio Architect Curve for all three:
And hypothetically no losing years:
It’s tested out well over every year and has done excellently during crazy 2023.
Trend following isn’t dead.
It just can’t be handicapped by a move to break-even.
Talk to you soon.
It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Examples presented on these sites are for educational purposes only. These set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. The authors, the publisher, and all affiliates assume no responsibility for your trading results. There is a high degree of risk in trading.
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.