2024 Year-End Systems Review

Jan. 6, 2025

It’s always fun to look back at the year that was.

So that’s what we’ll do to start off the new year. After all, a great indicator of future performance is the most recent performance.

First, we’ll briefly look at the stock market.

The SPY was up over 20% for the 2nd year in a row, which hasn’t happened since 1997. That said, what are the chances the market will be positive in 2025? Quite high, actually.

One other note, value investing is dead. Well, maybe not entirely. But it’s performed pretty darn badly. Fun fact: Growth stocks outperformed Value stocks by 19% in 2024, marking the biggest 2-year outperformance in history. Growth rules right now–and has for a long time.

Second, how did trend following do last year? With all of those fun statistics, I’m assuming trend following knocked it out of the park.

Nope. Quite the opposite.

Here’s how an excellent trend following bellwether performed in 2024. This is basic trend following using a 40-day entry and a 20-day trailing stop. It’s called 40in20out and this study has been running for years. It buys many commodities and uses that basic trend following framework. In 2020, it was unbelievably good. And it’s put up big numbers other recent years, too. But last year?

It finished up a mere 8.92%. The trends weren’t great despite all the hoopla.

And what about Purple Valley? I wrote a book about this amazing trend following fund a few years ago. It’s pure trend following on steroids and it can put up eye-popping numbers. How did it do in 2024?

Yikes. It was down 8%. Again, the stock market led us to believe 2024 was great. It was not great for many systems.

Next, how did our Performance Page Portfolio (PPP) do?

This portfolio is a long-term futures portfolio designed to trend trade the E-Mini S&P in a couple of complementary ways. Two strategies buy on pullbacks. One buys breakouts. And the other strategy trades breakouts in a different way on Gold. Watch a video on this portfolio HERE.

Did PPP do well last year?

Absolutely.

It hypothetically produced over $64k on a sample $57k account. Here’s the Report since 2016 trading 1 contract each time:

Here are the hypothetical Annual Returns:

Trend following struggled in many places but buying on pullbacks seemed to work great.

What about “high-risk” high-yield ETFs? Whether you need income or whether you’re looking for total returns, “high-risk” ETFs were anything but.

I’ve been tracking a high-yield ETF portfolio since February 2024 and it beat the market in total return if all distributions were reinvested. Here’s the video on that portfolio and here’s how it did:

That portfolio didn’t know there was another massively good ETF coming out soon after, so the new one wasn’t included. If we do include it, here are the returns since that one was released. It beat the market by even more (with reinvesting):

Every ETF in the first portfolio is in that video at the 11:05 mark. Elite and Dividend Income Program (DIP) members get the updated portfolio for free.

Moving on, in 2024 I fell in love with a Futures system on the NQ. Watch the video and get all the rules and details HERE.

It buys on Mondays and uses an extremely “negative” reward-to-risk. It did well after I started trading it and it had a good 2024. Here’s the Report:

It made over $7k on a sample $25k account, which also beat the market. If you have better margin than Tradestation, the returns would’ve been even higher.

And, of course, we have the once-a-year Holiday System. It tries to ride the “Santa Claus Rally”.

In the stock market, the Santa Rally failed. How did the Holiday System do?

It won.

And it made about $3,800 trading just 1 hypothetical contract.

Last, I just made a video on 3 Habits That Changed My Life.

I don’t really talk about high-performance or self-development in this Newsletter, but I’ve been studying high-performance since 1994, and I have a lot to say about it. If you’d like me to sprinkle that in, let me know.

Otherwise, you’ll never hear about this subject again!

Happy New Year! Looking forward to 2025!

Talk to you soon.

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Disclaimer:
It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Examples presented on these sites are for educational purposes only. These set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. The authors, the publisher, and all affiliates assume no responsibility for your trading results. There is a high degree of risk in trading.

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.