2024 Has Been Great For This Newsletter System

Dec. 16, 2024

As Jerry Seinfeld once said to an unhelpful customer service person, “You know how to take a reservation. You just don’t know how to hold a reservation. And that’s really the most important part of the reservation–the holding. Anyone can take a reservation…”

It’s the same for trading systems on the internet.

Anyone can throw out a trading system.

But the most important part of an internet trading system is the tracking of that system.

Back in August, we talked about a system on the ES (E-Mini S&P 500). Read that article here.

How has it done since then and for the entire year?

Let’s check it out.

First, here are the rules once again:

The ES Daily RSI Pullback Foundational System (@ES)

• • For Longs, price must be above the 210-day moving average
  • For Longs, price must close into Oversold (length 2, OS 18)
  • For Long exit, price must close into Overbought (length 2, OB 78)
  • For Shorts, price must be below the 210-day moving average
  • For Shorts, price must close into Overbought (length 2, OB 95)
  • For Short exit, price must close into Oversold (length 2, OS 25)
  • Emergency stop: $5500 per contract

This system buys on pullbacks and sells on surges. Unlike many index systems, this one goes Short, which gives it a chance to be profitable in Bear Market environments.

Plus, it uses the RSI, and I’ve always liked the RSI.

As mentioned, this system was in the Aug. 16, 2024 Newsletter. How has it done since?

Here are some trades since August:

All the trades have been winners.

And you can see how 2024 has gone. The teal lines are winners and the red lines are losers. There haven’t been many losers.

Here are the Annual Returns since 2020:

Here’s the Curve via Portfolio Architect trading 1 contract since 1998:

It’s up almost 1,100% with no compounding.

What could go wrong?

Not a whole lot–and that’s why I liked it so much back in August and why I still like it.

It can go Short during the upcoming Bear Market as well as make gains during Bull Markets.

Yes, a quick-moving fall or rise could take us to the emergency stop and a market that suddenly changes its mind is not ideal.

And there are losing years because it’s on a Daily chart and there aren’t enough trades in a calendar year to get out of all drawdowns.

But it’s a system that’s held up very well and shows good historical testing.

It’s still one of my favorites.

Talk to you soon.

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Disclaimer:
It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Examples presented on these sites are for educational purposes only. These set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. The authors, the publisher, and all affiliates assume no responsibility for your trading results. There is a high degree of risk in trading.

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.